Monthly Archives: November 2010

November 30, 2010 · 6:59 AM

Tough Road Ahead

It’s going to start next Monday night when the Pats welcome the Jets to Gillette. The Pats are the early favorite (3.5) in this game pretty much because they’re the home team. But after that it doesn’t get much easier. Let me explain.

Say the Patriots beat the Jets. The Pats will hold a one game lead in the division at 10-2 to the Jets 9-3. But let’s break down where each team goes after Monday night’s tilt.

The Jets have the Dolphins at home then travel to the Steelers and Bears in back to back road games before they end at home against the Bills over the final four weeks after the Pats game. You have to think that they’re going at least 2-2 in the worst case scenario. The Steelers and Bears on the road present the toughest remaining challenge after the Pats whereas division rivals Miami and Buffalo should be easy wins.

The Pats meanwhile will also have the Bears on the road, host the Packers, at the Bills the day after Christmas and hosting the Dolphins on January 2nd. You’d think the same as the Jets that a worst case scenario would have them also at 2-2 over that stretch. The Bears at Chicago will be no easy task (although I predict a defensive scheme that will confuse Jay Cutler) same with Green Bay at home.

I guess in both scenarios I’m underestimating both Miami and Buffalo (both play the Jets and Pats tough) but I think as the season is winding down, true playoff toughness shines through. If you’re thinking that the Patriots are one of the true Super Bowl contenders, they beat the beatable teams.

Bottom line, if the Patriots don’t win this week they’re likely going to be the #5 seed in the playoffs despite a better record than the other division winners. Every tiebreaker falls to the side of the Jets. So even if the Pats beat the Jets on Monday, they need to match the Jets record over the final four weeks. If they finish tied atop the east, the Jets own the tiebreakers.

Scary.

Here’s hoping that the Patriots are in the midst of one of those magical runs from the early 2000′s where they just start rolling over every team on the schedule. Personally I don’t care if it’s by a point or a blow out, so long as they keep winning.

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November 29, 2010 · 7:09 AM

I Was Pretty Close

So I posted a quick post Thursday morning after my 10K race (1:11:41.30 and a better second half of the race than first for reference) saying that the Pats and Lions were going to have a high scoring game and that the Pats would win 38-30.

Well, when I tuned in (I had early dinner) the Pats were down 14-3. I did a double take. Benjarvus Green-Ellis bowled over a defender and all of a sudden the Pats were only down four. I felt a little better. But a late Detroit field goal had the Pats down seven at the half.

But as we’ve all seen since Thursday afternoon, it was a tail of two halves. This was a criticism of the Patriots for the past few years; they didn’t make halftime adjustments. Whether it was Bill’s ego or they were making the wrong adjustments, there were several games (most recently against the Browns) where the Pats came out in the second half and continued to be inept.

Well, that didn’t happen Thursday.

The Pats came out and tied the game after the half. The Lions scored again to go up seven but the Pats tied the game on a 79 yard pass to Deion Branch. Somehow I was on the edge of my seat (in the car) thinking that the fourth quarter may be disastrous.

Thankfully the Pats had three touchdowns to the Lions zero in the fourth and they pulled out the victory in what looked like a beat down; final score 45-24 final. Devin McCourty looked like a worthy first round pick as he picked off Shaun Hill twice. Brady had a perfect quarterback rating on the day with two touchdowns apiece to Branch and Welker. Benjarvus Green-Ellis also had two scores.

So the offense sputtered to start the game but thanks to a five touchdown second half, looked like world beaters. I was off on my score prediction, but I’m certainly OK with it when the Pats are running up the score.

Next up is the Jets on Monday night. Meaning another Sunday without the Pats coming up. So long as the Pats continue to win, I’ll ignore the fact that my fantasy team (now renamed to the Shitty Mc-Lose-A-Lot) is in a free fall out of the playoffs.

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November 26, 2010 · 8:03 AM

Happy Causeway Day

Remember it’s a marathon not a sprint.

Bruins against the the Hurricanes at noon followed by the Celtics against the Raptors at 7:30.

I’ll be at both for the 12th straight year (except the one year the Bruins were on strike and we bowled at the yacht club before the Celtics).

Happy Causeway Day to one and all!

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November 25, 2010 · 11:04 AM

Pats Beat The Lions

Well, we’ll find out in an hour and a half when the game kicks off.

But I’m so late to the game when I was supposed to write this last night.

Pats are favored by 7 and wearing the throw back Pat Patriot. Well they beat Detroit in 2002 but lost on Thanksgiving in 2000. I’m saying they win this game. High scoring just because Calvin Johnson on the other side is that good a wide out and the Pats secondary isn’t that great.

I’m going to take the Pats 38-30.

Back Monday (that’s right Monday) with a recap.

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November 24, 2010 · 7:05 AM

So Long V-Mart

I know you were waiting for a Pats vs. Lions preview. Why wouldn’t you. That’s what I promised yesterday. Well, I’ll write that tonight and you can read it in the morning (or really late tonight).

Yesterday I didn’t get any emails and didn’t surf over to ESPN.com so when I got into the car I figured the guys on the Sports Hub (98.5 FM) were just bitching about free agency and the lack of urgency by the Red Sox. Then the calls started in about Victor Martinez heading to the Tigers.

I still didn’t think anything of it. In fact I thought it was still speculation.

Then when I got home I checked out ESPNBOSTON and saw for myself that Martinez was on his way out of town. Four year deal worth $50 million. OK, so $12.5 a year for four years. That’s lower than I thought he would command on the open market. I figured at least $60 million on the same deal.

Then I read that the Tigers got him as a full time DH and a part-time, backup catcher. OK, so the Sox are willing to pay David Ortiz $12.5 as a DH this year but wouldn’t want the same for Martinez in two years when they could let Ortiz walk, move Martinez out from behind the plate, and make him the full time catcher.

Well, who am I to judge.

Then while I was reading the entertaining Bill Simmons chat recap yesterday he made a very interesting point when asked about the Sox making a big splash on a Carl Crawford or Jayson Werth:

Rich (Boston)
Who do you think the Sox should grab from free agency out of Crawford or Werth? Do you also think they will make a big trade for Fielder or Gonzo?

Bill Simmons (2:08 PM)
I’d much rather see them re-sign Beltre (as long as it’s fairly reasonable) and avoid a big-money panic signing (like the Lackey one last winter) that’s done partly so they can say, “Look, we changed our team!” That’s the Lou Gorman mentality that Theo Epstein always swore to avoid – you don’t make moves to make fans/writers/talk show hosts happy in December, you make them because they’re smart. And overpaying for Crawford/Werth (and losing draft picks) so we can then turn around and deal Jacoby Ellsbury for 35 cents on the dollar… how is that smart? The team got destroyed by injuries last season and still hung around into September. Why do they have to panic?

All that said I agree partially with Simmons. I agree that I don’t want them to make a panic move like the Lackey signing but I want them to do something. I’m greedy. I want a team that I can root for. So not only do I want them to fill the void in left with Crawford, I want them to put a deal together to get Adrian Gonzalez from San Diego. If they have to include Jacoby, fine.

The alternative is interesting. Say the team loses out on Beltre. Say they make that trade with Arizona and they have Upton coming in to play left. That still leaves a hole in the infield. Why not take a shot at Derek Jeter to play third? Is it that big a deal? I think it would be for New York fans. I think they’d be tearing down the walls at the New Yankee Stadium over Cashman allowing that to happen. In turn the Sox fill a need at third, Jeter plays out two or three years and then when his deal is up you move Lowrie to third when Jose Iglesias is ready to play.

Till then, I still say, don’t renew your season tickets. It’s still a third place team and the Yankees signing Cliff Lee will cement that spot even more.

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