So let’s recap what happened the last time the Pats played a team that was known for their incredible offense at the Super Dome in New Orleans. Oh yeah, they won the Super Bowl against the Rams despite being a 14 point underdog.
A different defense this time for the Pats but I foresee the same results.
The Pats are heading into New Orleans as the favorite. So to understand this correctly the Patriots who have yet to win a true road game this year (I don’t count England) are a favorite by 1.5 against the undefeated Saints and arguably the best offense in the NFL? You know what? I’m OK with that.
I’m thinking that the game plan will be very similar to the Rams Super Bowl. Try and confuse Brees as to where that extra guy is coming from. The big issue facing the Pats is, what guys are going to be available. As of Sunday night they had 17 guys listed on their injury report. Of those 17 the list includes Tully Banta-Cain, Ty Warren, Ron Brace, Pat Chung and Jarvis Green. So really where the blitz is coming from is going to depend on the guys available.
On the offense of side (this is killing me to write it) I think that Maroney is going to have a monster game. The way I look at it is this, the Saints are very susceptible to the run. They allow about 115 yards per game on the ground and 4.6 yards a carry. They don’t allow a lot of points total but that’s just because their offense seems to be on the field most of the time.
Brady and the passing game should have success as well considering that if they’re able to establish the dominant run game early it will open up the offense to use the play action that they love so much. Sure the five wide, no huddle has been their bread and butter when they’re really running it up on teams but the play action wasn’t available with guys running for negative two yards and playing dancing queen behind the line.
The over/under is set at 56.5. I think that’s a pretty smart line. Defense is going to be sparse in this game. Of course those are the games that are usually 7-6 at halftime and end 13-10. I don’t think that’s going to be the case. That Pats love playing indoors on the turf and if it weren’t for a depleted defense and a failed fourth and two would have beat the Colts on the turf.
So what do I think is going to happen. The same thing Vegas does. Pats win a close road game and pull out the win in classic Vinatieri style as time expires. Pats win 33-31 on a Gostkowski’s foot this time in the bayou.
Back tomorrow with a recap.
