Papelbon has been dominant but it seems that his dominance isn’t what it was even a season ago.
Sure he has a 1.89 ERA and 22 saves a little after the mid point of the season and sure he’s an All Star but the numbers don’t lie. His walk to strike out ratio last year was 9.63:1 this year it’s almost a quarter of that at 2.24:1. He’s throwing a lot more pitches than he has in season past throwing 657 already this season when he threw 1051 in all of the 2008 regular season.
If anyone’s ever read Moneyball you know that a closer is something that a club produces. At least if you’re building your team with the Money ball philosophy. You groom a guy in your system, he’s your closer for a few years and when it’s time for him to be a free agent, you let him walk or trade him for some prospects. The A’s have done it three times now with Isringhausen (even is he didn’t come through their system), Keith Foulke (thank you very much) and finally this past off season with Huston Street (netting them Matt Holiday).
So if you’re going to buy a new Red Sox jersey I think it’s a safe bet not to buy a Papelbon jersey. This guy who is arguably baseball’s best at his job, is going to look for big money when his current deal is up. As much as the Sox will try a Pedroia and Youkilis-esque deal where they lock him up long term they’re not going to try and break the bank to do and he’ll walk. When he does the Sox will get another first round draft pick and they’ll have one of the young guns in their system take the reigns at closer.
But for now, let’s enjoy the Papelmania and hope he gets back on track to his ’06-’07 form and remember that he has a 0.00 ERA in the postseason.
